The food inflation for vegetables reached 27.3 % in May 2024. If the monsoon rains in July are uniform and consistent, vegetable prices might begin to fall by the end of September. That may be a pleasant way to begin the festival season.
Tough month of June
Although the monsoon of 2024 got off to a great start, by the end of June, there was an 11% shortfall. For the third year in a row, June has had insufficient rainfall. Due to the fact that the monsoon arrives in the southern peninsula first, June rainfall in the southern states is significantly higher (183.9 mm) than in northwest India (52.6 mm). Central India typically receives 70.3 mm of rainfall, but only received 14% (147 mm) of that amount.
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Impact on Crops
A number of crops saw decreased productivity and production in Karnataka and Maharashtra last year as a result of the region’s poor rainfall. In these two states, even a resilient crop like sugarcane had negative effects.
The seeded area under pulses should be larger because of June’s strong rainfall. Much higher market prices than the MSP and a public declaration by the Agriculture Minister regarding the acquisition of pulses are two more compelling factors for increased pulse output.
Possible water paucity issues
According to the Reservoir Storage Bulletin of the Central Water Commission, the total live storage available in these reservoirs was 8.322 BCM on 27th June 2024. This is lower than last year’s level of 20% and normal storage level of 22% (of the last ten years). As a result, the following three months will be extremely important since sufficient rainfall is required for the remaining monsoon period. The city may face water shortage issues in the absence of the same.
Prediction of crops
The Union Government has set a production target of 340 million tons for the crop year 2024–25, which spans from July to June. The goal of the 159.97 million tons of kharif crop is to be produced.
Overall kharif crop production should still be strong if the IMD projection for the upcoming months proves to be accurate and the distribution of precipitation is not distorted.
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The southern peninsula has seen an excess of 14% rainfall, which is fantastic news. Although there was insufficient rainfall in Kerala (-25%) and coastal Karnataka (-14%), the amount of rain that fell in these areas is significant for kharif crops.
In general, the current agricultural ecosystem and governmental policies do not yet facilitate the required level of diversification away from rice and toward crops that use less water, such as oilseeds and pulses.
About the Author
Ms Manasi Gawali is an economics graduate from St. Xavier’s College, Mumbai. She is passionate about economics and finance. She enjoys research, writing poems, music, and travel.
